Bitcoin Macro Price Projections

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350DMA: 

Once price moves above the 350 day moving average, historically a new bull run has begun. However, usually the price doesn’t drop below the MA until after the bull run. This market cycle, the price has returned to touch the MA. This should just be a level of support until the real bull market starts.

SMA 1458D:

The reason 4 years is chosen for this simple moving average is because a bitcoin cycle is 4 years for every halving. This analysis is similar to the one above (350DMA) in that the SMA1458D line has historically been a line of support for market bottoms. Like above, this cycle, we seem to be returning to it. It has yet to be seen whether we will fully return to the line of support or not.

CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) has historically picked the bottom of the market. When coins pass from old investors to new investors, the transaction carries a USD value and also destroys an amount of ‘HODL’ time by the previous holder (the length of time since the bitcoin has last moved). CVDD is the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as a ratio to the age of the market and divided by 6 million as a calibration factor.  

CVDD analysis is similar to SMA 1458D in that we have already touched the support line in the beginning of 2019, yet are again approaching the line at $5,000. The question is, has the bull market started yet, or will we touch this support line one more time? As it can be seen above, last market cycle, it took one year (2014–2015) for the bubble to pop, from 2015–2016 for accumulation to occur (where CVDD remained a line of support), and then 2016 onwards for the bull market to occur. If this cycle continues the same trend, 2018–2019 pops the bubble (already has occurred), and 2019–2020 is the accumulation phase. This would explain the recent near return to CVDD — the market got overexcited yet is now returning to its true value. Comparing the arrows, I don’t think we will make a full return to the line of support.

Delta Cap:

The Realized Cap (The value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved; in other words, an approximation of what the entire market paid for their coins.) minus Average Cap (This is the ‘forever’ moving average of Market Cap; the cumulative sum of daily Market Cap values divided by the age of the market in days.).  

Market Cap has historically touched Delta Cap at market bottoms. This is a similar analysis to CVDD above. While I cannot point to what has caused the sharp increase recently to ~$6k, it supports the same conclusion. Below you can see Delta Cap zoomed in at the end of 2019.

As you can see, Delta is now approaching $6,000.

VWAP: 

Volume weighted average price (ratio). The Global VWAP helps find accumulation tops before the run-up, and the ratio tracks bull/bear markets depending on whether the ratio is above/below 1 (respectively). As you can see by the arrows, we are currently in an accumulation top.  

I chose the 200 day average for the ratio, because you need something responsive enough to give a useful indicator. Because of this, and due to the price decrease since June 2019, the VWAPR has gone <1 recently for the 200DA. However, when viewing on the global indicator (seen on the below chart), the ratio hits the support line. I therefore do not think this is an indication of a recent bear market. The 200 day average is more often used for medium-view trades. This means that while we have entered (and still remain) in a macro bull market, we are recently in a mid-term down trend.

Here, the only change is the VWAP ratio, where I display the global value instead of the 200 day average. At the end of the chart, you can see that we have entered into a macro bull market (>1 value).

Puell Multiple:  

This metric looks at the Daily Coin Issuance (Adjusted by yearly moving average). Historically, this predicts incredibly well the lows and highs of the last two major cycles. (Here, we are just looking at the lows, please disregard the rest of the data on the chart).  ​  

Historically, market lows have corresponded with a Puell Multiple below 0.4. You can see that the recent market low of ~$3,200 mid-December of 2018 is indeed indicated as the bottom of the market cycle, with a Puell Multiple of <0.4. This is further evidence that now is a good time to invest, and that 2020 should be a good year for investment.  

Extending this chart out to the current date, you can see that the Puell Multiple has risen and now fallen to around 1:

This too happened around mid-July 2016, without affecting the bull run. While this occurred on a halving (which you can see from the steep drop in Puell value), I believe the discrepancy here (occurring ~4 months before the halving) is that the market is pricing this in. This would also explain the premature increase in price, and the fall back to the support lines explained above. This leads to a theory called re-accumulation, which I will explain next.